5 Players I Will Not Draft in 2025
Enough of all this positivity.
Around this time of the offseason, it becomes increasingly difficult to be in my brain. I constantly have to decide which picture to paint about a player and team outlook. Between coaching, player tape and development, and previous season production, there are plenty of factors to analyze. Knowing who to draft feels like the easy part, players are where they are because consensus sees them as that value. You really just have to nitpick and choose your favorites in a smaller range.
The hard part is deciding who you are OUT on. Mainly because you know these players will provide value, and you are planting your flag on accepting that and missing out. Nothing proves more true than the old saying. “Don’t hate the player, hate the game.” Well, I hate these draft positions.
**Average Draft Position is Multi-Platform Consensus from DraftSharks.com**
Terry McLaurin WR - ADP Pick 3.12
After an insanely dominant 2024 with a rookie QB, why in the world would someone not want this guy on their team? Overall, valid point! It’s easy to think we can only go up with Jayden Daniels natural progression occurring in year two. As with most of these players, that price is just far too rich for me.
McLaurin finished with what I consider an odd stat line. 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. THIRTEEN. No one in the world has that expectation going into 2025. But what might be even crazier is that he had FOUR games with multiple touchdowns. Highly impressive, impossible to replicate. One number I focus on is that he only saw more than 8 targets in a game three times in 2024. If I am going to naturally expect touchdown regression, I need volume to overcome that dip.
The Commanders added Deebo Samuel, as well as focused on bolstering their offensive line this offseason. Indicating they want to get some run game juice back. That factor combined with Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme being more of a lateral and efficiency centric offense. I am forecasting some downfield success regressing to the mean as well.
Preferred picks in that range: Garrett Wilson, Rashee Rice, James Cook
D.K. Metcalf WR - ADP Pick 4.12
This draft position actually irritates me. I thought there would be some value dip based on overall situation and a clear understanding that this team wants to run the ball and play defense. Unfortunately, that isn’t true in the slightest bit and his current value is impossible for me to justify. 4th round Metcalf literally looks bad on your team, and might feel even worse.
Ideally I want Metcalf as my 3rd WR, because the upside is there, this just makes it extremely difficult. This team lacks weapons and that hasn’t been helpful for DK in past situations. The scheme doesn’t even provide him an opportunity to overcome the overall team philosophy of low volume passing and ball control offense. It’s a price I simply cannot get behind.
This range has some upside, but make sure you take a look at this group of WRs and decide if you want to attack the position early and look at RB or elite QB in this range.
Preferred picks: Ken Walker, Courtland Sutton, Devonta Smith, James Conner
Zay Flowers WR - ADP Pick 5.07
This one is a little bit different. I’m a huge fan of this player. This is me just being out on Ravens WRs. I have been for quite some time as a general philosophy. The factors that limit Flowers’ ceiling outcome are just too glaring for me to use what is still considered a core building pick. We need room for this value to grow, and the pick to be a true league altering hit. He simply cannot be.
Lamar Jackson threw 41 touchdowns in 2024. Zay Flowers finished with 4. That feels impossible. The competition for red zone touchdowns continues to increase with the Ravens adding DeAndre Hopkins. That doesn’t even factor in the fact that they run the ball in that area, and do it quite well.
You can make the case for another round and a half of players with higher upside, even just on injury contingency like Jameson Williams, Devonta Smith, George Pickens, Travis Hunter. Flowers doesn’t have a singular player missing time that would impact his outcome like these others do. You kind of get what you get, even in wild QB touchdown rate seasons by Lamar Jackson.
Preferred picks: George Pickens, TreVeyon Henderson, Travis Hunter
Brian Robinson Jr RB - ADP Pick 7.11
Brian Robinson Jr. has been a player I have never drafted. His skillset just doesn’t translate to fantasy production that can change the outcome of a week often enough for me. A 7th round pick is still a mid-round selection. He has yet to reach 800 rushing yards in a season, and never caught more than 36 passes. With Deebo Samuel added along with Austin Ekeler still in the mix, I don’t see a floor or a ceiling outcome here.
Jayden Daniels handles the explosives in the run game himself, but the Commanders also brought in rookie Jacory Croskey-Merrit (Elite name) to compete as an explosive element. It’s too muddied of a situation in what could simply be a bad run game for me. Hard pass.
Preferred picks: Jakobi Meyers, Jaylen Warren, Tyrone Tracy, Ricky Pearsall
Cooper Kupp WR - ADP Pick 8.05
Right around that same range as Brian Robinson, I also won’t have any Cooper Kupp. I’m not going to tell you what to believe, but I did watch the tape. I don’t see a world where we see relevant success for Kupp without Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. Especially paired with a doodoo offensive line and a guaranteed run heavy scheme.
Even if you don’t think Kupp is “washed”, it was insanely clear that he’s lost a step. If nothing else, he’s a lesser player than Jaxon Smith-Njigba at this point in his career. For this fade, it’s the player outlook combined with my overall approach to drafts in 2025.
I will be in on the WR position early this season. Even if I go with a stud RB in rounds 1-2, I’ll be attacking WR in round 3-5 more often than not. This round 8 range is where I look for some RB upside (Not Brian Robinson), or am filling my TE and QB spot. As I’ve said before, feed me all the Bo Nix and David Njoku in this area.
Preferred picks: Stefon Diggs, Bo Nix, Josh Downs
It’s important to remember that price and value are everything in this game. If I’m drafting with a group of people who all fade Kupp and he falls to round 10, sure why not? That’s the case with all these guys. For the most part though, they’re all yours.
I highly recommend making a list yourself of guys who simply don’t feel fun to roster in 2025. It’s always a refreshing way to look at it.
Thanks for reading as always my people! Happy Draft Season.
-Al Calo
Great breakdown. Two things I’d like to point out is that if the Commanders can figure out Terrys contract I think he’s a great pick in the 3rd round this year as a WR2. Also news out of Ravens camp is that they are trying to find more ways to get Flowers the ball. Of course, have to take stuff like that with a grain of salt but he could be in for a big year.